海外之声两个债权国的故事德国海外资产背后的政治危害中英双语,资产,政治,EditSprings,艾德思



观点速递

本文作者是IMI国际委员会成员/艾德思文章润色金融公司官方论坛(OMFIF)主席David Marsh,原文选自艾德思文章润色金融公司官方论坛(OMFIF)出版的Commentary.OMFIF是一家全球位于伦敦的全球金融智库.

根据OMFIF收集的去年年末数据显示,德国在12个月内超越中国,跃升为世界第二大净债权国.作者对比了德国和中国两大债权国的资金盈余情况和投资情况,在怎样部署外部储备方面,中国国家控制且长期规划的系统表现出更大优势.

中文译文如下:

两个债权国的故事

德国海外资产背后的政治危害

戴维·马什

翻译:宋成稳

审校:熊若洁

2018年7月4日

经济金融压力之时,债权人会比债务人更占优势.这是传统智慧,但不是总能对应现实.官方货币与金融公司论坛(OMFIF)收集的2017年末数据显示,德国在12个月内超越中国,跃升为世界第二大净债权国(仅次于日本).

论坛发表在全球公众投资者2018(Global Public Investor 2018)上的这些数据表明,近年来中国比德国更善于适应净债权国状况,以促进本国预期的长期利益.

德国国际投资净头寸,即德国对外投资与外商投资的差额由2016年末的万亿美元上升到2017年末的万亿美元,GDP占比也由52%上升到61%.与之相比,中国国际投资净头寸由万亿美元下降到2017年末的万亿美元(GDP占比由16%下降到14%),日本国际投资净头寸由万亿美元上升到万亿美元元(GDP占比由61%上升到64%).

中国将盈余转用于海外基建合资企业和科技机构的重要战略持股,不再用于持有他国国债.德国增持的多是经济货币联盟下无利息/无条件的国债,其中许多可能永远无法得到偿还.这些就是所谓的Target-2平衡,记录了成员国央行对欧盟中央银行的债权和债务.德国央行在Target-2系统下的债权,5月底为9560亿欧元,而6月底很可能接近或超过1万亿欧元,根据未来几天后发布的数据.

在这两个债权国的故事中,中国国家控制且长期规划的系统正在展现一些表面益处.

经济上,德国大量的正国际投资净头寸可能增强实力.可以说,像德国这样富裕/老龄化/经常账目几乎永远盈余的国家,需要大量海外储蓄,待未来应对人口衰退时,可以有条不紊地缩减.

尽管如此,德国大量的海外资产在政治上像是炸药,会危害国家的自身利益.这是因为德国是欧洲经济货币联盟最大的资产所有者,该联盟由19个欧洲债权国和债务国组成,可能极不稳定.

意大利是欧洲经济货币联盟最大的债务国,它的疑欧政府正在利用Target-2系统下的债务撬动德国,旨在推动对扩张性欧洲财政和货币政策的需求,并减轻过大的移民压力,该政府谴责后者加剧了社会经济的紧张局势.

资金充足的原告向德国联邦宪法法院提起反对欧洲中央银行量化宽松项目的诉讼引人注目,背后的主要论据在于欧洲的国债违约危险会使德国遭遇无法接受的财政风险.德国联邦宪法法官似乎对这项诉讼非常认真,与之相关,欧洲法院于7月10日在卢森堡组织了一场公众听证会.

案件的核心议题—量化宽松对德国纳税人造成损失的风险,因意大利两个新执政党右翼联盟和五星运动政治家的政策声明而大大减小.

Target-2平衡的基石是德国总体净国外资产,德国央行的数据显示,金融危机前的2007年只有4710亿欧元,而2015年末有万亿欧元,2016年末增至万亿欧元,2017年末达到万亿欧元.1999年,欧洲经济货币联盟成立,当时德国实际上没有净国外资产,因为它缩减之前大量的海外储蓄,为德国统一提供资金.

相比之下,中国已利用外国直接投资和证券投资作为重要工具,部署中国的外汇储备.中国为海外基建项目提供了资金,包括与一带一路相关的国家和非洲/拉丁美洲资源丰富的经济体.中国已向发达经济体的房地产和科技产业投入大量资金,特别是在欧洲.这一趋势表现在中国对外直接投资资产由2007年的1150亿美元猛增至2017年的万亿美元左右.

未来几年,金融历史学家可能会冥思苦想一个复杂有趣的问题:自金融危机以来,世界第二大和第三大债权国为什么能更加睿智地部署外汇储备.就目前而言,中国可能优势更大.

英语原文如下:

Tale of two creditors

Political dynamite behind Germany's foreign assets

David Marsh

  4 July 2018

At times of economic and financial stress, creditor nations will have the upper hand over debtors. That is conventional wisdom, yet it does not always correspond to reality. Germany has advanced to the position of the world's No.2 net creditor (after Japan), taking over the position during the past 12 months from China, according to data from end-2017 assembled by OMFIF.

The statistics – published in OMFIF's Global Public Investor 2018 – show that China has been more adept than Germany in recent years in adapting its net creditor status to support the country's perceived long-term interests.

Germany's net international investment position – the gap between the value of German investments abroad and that of foreign investments in Germany – rose to $tn at end-2017 from $tn at end-2016, 61% of GDP against 52% 12 months earlier. This compares with China, whose NIIP declined to $tn at end-2017 from $tn (14% against 16% of GDP) and Japan, whose NIIP rose to $tn from $tn (64% against 61%).

China has been moving its foreign surpluses into strategically important equity holdings in infrastructure ventures and technology companies abroad, and away from holdings of other governments' debt. Much of Germany's build-up is in non-interest-bearing, unconditional advances within economic and monetary union – much of which will probably never be fully repaid. These are the so-called Target-2 balances registering claims on and liabilities towards the European Central Bank from constituent national central banks. The German Bundesbank's claims under Target-2 look likely to approach or exceed €1tn as of the end of June, against €956bn at end-May, according to statistics to be released in the next few days.

In this tale of two creditors, China's system of state control and long-term planning is displaying some ostensible benefits.

Economically, Germany's large positive NIIP might bring strength. A rich, aging country like Germany running near-permanent current account surpluses arguably needs large foreign savings, to be run down systematically as it copes with future demographic decline.

Politically, though, Germany's large foreign assets represent dynamite that could explode against the country's own interests. This is because Germany is the largest asset owner in a potentially highly unstable nexus of 19 European debtor and creditor EMU members.

Italy, the largest EMU debtor, has a eurosceptic government that is using its Target-2 liabilities as leverage over Germany. The aim is to push through demands for a softening of European financial and monetary conditions and to take pressure off undue migration into Italy that Rome blames for exacerbating social and economic tensions.

One of the principal arguments behind a high-profile German constitutional court case being brought against the ECB's quantitative easing programme by well-funded plaintiffs is that the danger of government bond defaults in Europe exposes the Germans to unacceptable budgetary risks. Linked to the lawsuit at the German constitutional court, which the German constitutional judges appear to be taking very seriously, the European Court of Justice is organising a public hearing on the matter in Luxembourg on 10 July.

The issue at the heart of the court case – the risk of QE-related losses to German taxpayers – has been brought into dramatic relief by policy statements from politicians connected to Rome's two new governmental parties, the League and Five Star Movement.

Target-2 balances are the bedrock of Germany's overall net foreign assets that, according to Bundesbank figures, totalled €tn at end-2017 against €tn at end-2016, €tn at end-2015 and only €471bn in 2007 before the financial crisis. When EMU started in 1999, Germany had virtually no net foreign assets, since it had run down its previous large foreign savings to help finance German reunification.

China, by contrast, has turned to foreign direct investment and portfolio investment as important vehicles for deploying Beijing's international reserves. China has financed infrastructure projects abroad, including in countries connected to Beijing's Belt and Road initiative, as well as resource-rich economies in Africa and Latin America. China has already invested heavily in real estate and technology in advanced economies, particularly in Europe. This trend is reflected in the impressive growth of Chinese FDI assets over the past decade to around $tn in 2017 from just $115bn in 2007.

Financial historians in coming years may puzzle over an intriguing conundrum: which of the world's No.2 and No.3 creditor nations has deployed their foreign reserves more wisely during the years since the financial crisis. On present showing, China may have the stronger hand.

内容整理 罗梦宇

图文编辑 罗梦宇

审校  田雯

监制  朱霜霜

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中国人民大学艾德思文章润色研究所(IMI)成立于2009年12月20日,是专注于货币金融理论/政策与战略研究的非营利性学术研究公司和新型专业智库.研究所聘请了来自国内外科研院所/政府部门或金融公司的90余位著名专家学者担任顾问委员/学术委员和国际委员,80余位中青年专家担任研究员.

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